A Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Stochastic Modeling Approach of Emergency Calls in an Urban Context
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Otros documentos de la autoría: Payares García, David Enrique; Platero Puig, Javier; Mateu, Jorge
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A Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Stochastic Modeling Approach of Emergency Calls in an Urban ContextFecha de publicación
2023Editor
MDPICita bibliográfica
Payares-Garcia, D.; Platero, J.; Mateu, J. A Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Stochastic Modeling Approach of Emergency Calls in an Urban Context. Mathematics 2023, 11, 1052. https://doi.org/10.3390/ math11041052Tipo de documento
info:eu-repo/semantics/articleVersión de la editorial
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/4/1052Versión
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPalabras clave / Materias
Resumen
Emergency calls are defined by an ever-expanding utilisation of information and sensing
technology, leading to extensive volumes of spatio-temporal high-resolution data. The spatial and
temporal character of the ... [+]
Emergency calls are defined by an ever-expanding utilisation of information and sensing
technology, leading to extensive volumes of spatio-temporal high-resolution data. The spatial and
temporal character of the emergency calls is leveraged by authorities to allocate resources and infrastructure for an effective response, to identify high-risk event areas, and to develop contingency
strategies. In this context, the spatio-temporal analysis of emergency calls is crucial to understanding
and mitigating distress situations. However, modelling and predicting crime-related emergency
calls remain challenging due to their heterogeneous and dynamic nature with complex underlying
processes. In this context, we propose a modelling strategy that accounts for the intrinsic complex
space–time dynamics of some crime data on cities by handling complex advection, diffusion, relocation, and volatility processes. This study presents a predictive framework capable of assimilating
data and providing confidence estimates on the predictions. By analysing the dynamics of the weekly
number of emergency calls in Valencia, Spain, for ten years (2010–2020), we aim to understand and
forecast the spatio-temporal behaviour of emergency calls in an urban environment. We include putative geographical variables, as well as distances to relevant city landmarks, into the spatio-temporal
point process modelling framework to measure the effect deterministic components exert on the
intensity of emergency calls in Valencia. Our results show how landmarks attract or repel offenders
and act as proxies to identify areas with high or low emergency calls. We are also able to estimate the
weekly average growth and decay in space and time of the emergency calls. Our proposal is intended
to guide mitigation strategies and policy. [-]
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Mathematics. 2023; 11(4):1052.Derechos de acceso
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