Local governments' re-election and its determinants: New evidence based on a Bayesian approach
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Otros documentos de la autoría: Balaguer-Coll, Maria Teresa; Brun Martos, María Isabel; Forte Deltell, Anabel; Tortosa-Ausina, Emili
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2015.04.004 |
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Título
Local governments' re-election and its determinants: New evidence based on a Bayesian approachAutoría
Fecha de publicación
2015Editor
ElsevierISSN
0176-2680; 1873-5703Cita bibliográfica
BALAGUER-COLL, Maria Teresa, et al. Local governments' re-election and its determinants: New evidence based on a Bayesian approach. European Journal of Political Economy, 2015, vol. 39, p. 94-108.Tipo de documento
info:eu-repo/semantics/articleVersión de la editorial
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268015000348Versión
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPalabras clave / Materias
Resumen
We analyzed the effect of public spending on the probability of re-election of Spanish local governments during the 2000–2007 period using Bayesian techniques. Although the literature on political budget cycles is now ... [+]
We analyzed the effect of public spending on the probability of re-election of Spanish local governments during the 2000–2007 period using Bayesian techniques. Although the literature on political budget cycles is now fairly large, few contributions have explicitly analyzed the determinants of re-election. The use of Bayesian techniques in this context is particularly interesting because, unlike most previous studies, results are not presented as a summary effect such as the average. Rather, our findings show exactly how a given covariate affects the probability of being re-elected. We find that, in general, increases in local government spending positively impact on local governments' chances of re-election. Moreover, the capital expenditure over the whole term positively affects the re-election probability, although the pre-electoral capital expenditure has a stronger effect on the chances of re-election. We also find that the electorate only rewards increases in current expenditures made in the pre-election period. [-]
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European Journal of Political Economy Volume 39, September 2015, Pages 94–108Derechos de acceso
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