Air prediction models of pollutants in an industrialised area of the Mediterranean basin

Abstract

Air quality evaluation was performed regarding atmos-pheric particles (TSP and PM10), As, Cd, Ni and Pb in a Spanish coastal area for five years (2001-2005) in order to compare these values with other areas in the Mediterranean basin. The study area, Vila-real (Castellón, Spain), is highly industrialised, with businesses involved in non-metallic mineral material industries (ceramic production) and chemi-cal industries (colour, frit and enamel manufacturing) stand-ing out. The origin of the contamination in this area is both natural and anthropogenic. The natural origin is due to the re-suspension of mineral materials from the surrounding moun-tains and from the long-range transport of materials from North Africa. The anthropogenic contamination sources are the aforementioned industries as well as vehicular traffic. The objective of this study was to assess the concentrations of these contaminants and elaborate a series of mathemati-cal models of them. The goal is to provide a useful instru-ment to alert the population facing possible episodes of high concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. Once the particle samples were collected in quartz fiber filters, the concen-tration levels of TSP and PM10 were determined gravim-etrically. The chemical analysis of the filters was carried out by ICP-MS. Predictive models have been constructed by using Multiple Regression Analysis together with Time Series Models (ARIMA). The SPSS 14.0 statistical software has been employed to analyze the obtained experimental data.