Automotive fuels: potential factors of the price variations and univariate predictions of future prices in Spain

Abstract

The aims of this paper are two. Firstly, to make known more precise and clearly the factors that are related to continuous variations in the price paid by consumers for the automotive fuel purchase in Spain while secondly, this paper attempts to obtain the predictions for the automotive fuel prices in Spain in the years 2015 and 2016. For these tasks will be divided this essay into two main parts, the first part that explains and develops theoretically every reason that influences at time to determining the automotive fuel prices and also explains its relevance in the Spanish case while in the second part of this paper, the automotive fuel prices in Spain for the years 2015 and 2016 are predicted. To do this, I will develop two univariate ARIMA models that use the gasoline and diesel prices for the years between 1999 and 2014 in Spain