Applying a CA-based model to explore land-use policy scenarios to contain sprawl in Thessaloniki, Greece

Abstract

This study addresses the issue of urban sprawl through the application of a Cellular Automata (CA) based model in the area of Thessaloniki, Greece. To link macro-scale to micro-dynamic processes the model integrates a statistical model at the regional level with a CA model at the local level. The model is used to compare two scenarios of growth of Thessaloniki to year 2030; the first one assuming a continuation of existing trends, whereas the second one assuming the enactment of various land use regulations in order to contain urban sprawl. The comparison of the results demonstrate that in the second scenario there is a smaller degree of leapfrog growth, with high percentage of new developed land being inside the existing city plans with development in areas outside the plans and in agricultural areas being minimized.