A hierarchical spatio-temporal model to analyze relative risk variations of COVID-19: a focus on Spain, Italy and Germany
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https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-021-02003-2 |
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Title
A hierarchical spatio-temporal model to analyze relative risk variations of COVID-19: a focus on Spain, Italy and GermanyDate
2021-04-23Publisher
Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer NatureISSN
1436-3259; 1436-3240Bibliographic citation
Jalilian, A., Mateu, J. A hierarchical spatio-temporal model to analyze relative risk variations of COVID-19: a focus on Spain, Italy and Germany. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 35, 797–812 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-021-02003-2Type
info:eu-repo/semantics/articlePublisher version
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00477-021-02003-2Version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionSubject
Abstract
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread rapidly across the world in a short period of time and with a
heterogeneous pattern. Understanding the underlying temporal and spatial dynamics in the spread of ... [+]
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread rapidly across the world in a short period of time and with a
heterogeneous pattern. Understanding the underlying temporal and spatial dynamics in the spread of COVID-19 can result
in informed and timely public health policies. In this paper, we use a spatio-temporal stochastic model to explain the
temporal and spatial variations in the daily number of new confirmed cases in Spain, Italy and Germany from late February
2020 to mid January 2021. Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we found that the temporal trends of the epidemic in
the three countries rapidly reached their peaks and slowly started to decline at the beginning of April and then increased
and reached their second maximum in the middle of November. However decline and increase of the temporal trend seems
to show different patterns in Spain, Italy and Germany. [-]
Is part of
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol. 35 (2021)Funder Name
Universitat Jaume I | Generalitat Valenciana | Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación
Project code
UJI-B2018-04 | AICO/2019/198 | MTM2016-78917-R
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021
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