Credit-to-GDP ratios – non-linear trends and persistence: evidence from 44 OECD economies

Abstract

Purpose In particular, in this article, the authors investigate the degree of persistence in the credit-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio in 44 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies in the context of nonlinear deterministic trends.

Design/methodology/approach The authors use Chebyshev's polynomials in time, which allow us to model changes in the data in a smoother way than by structural breaks.

Findings This study’s results indicate that approximately one-quarter of the series display non-linear structures, and only Argentina displays a mean reverting pattern.

Research limitations/implications Policy implications of the results obtained are discussed at the end of the manuscript.

Originality/value The authors use an approach developed that allows for non-linear trends based on Chebyshev polynomials in time, with the residuals being fractionally integrated or integrated of order d, where d can be any real value.