A Modified SIRD Model to Study the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Spain
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Title
A Modified SIRD Model to Study the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic in SpainAuthor (s)
Date
2021-04-19Publisher
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing InstituteISSN
2073-8994Bibliographic citation
Martínez, V. A Modified SIRD Model to Study the Evolution ofthe COVID-19 Pandemic in Spain.Symmetry 2021,13, 723. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym13040723Type
info:eu-repo/semantics/articlePublisher version
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-8994/13/4/723Version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionSubject
Abstract
In this paper, we use an SIRD model to analyze the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in
Spain, caused by a new virus called SARS-CoV-2 from the coronavirus family. This model is governed
by a nonlinear system of ... [+]
In this paper, we use an SIRD model to analyze the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in
Spain, caused by a new virus called SARS-CoV-2 from the coronavirus family. This model is governed
by a nonlinear system of differential equations that allows us to detect trends in the pandemic and
make reliable predictions of the evolution of the infection in the short term. This work shows this
evolution of the infection in various changing stages throughout the period of maximum alert in
Spain. It also shows a quick adaptation of the parameters that define the disease in several stages. In
addition, the model confirms the effectiveness of quarantine to avoid the exponential expansion of
the pandemic and reduce the number of deaths. The analysis shows good short-term predictions
using the SIRD model, which are useful to influence the evolution of the epidemic and thus carry out
actions that help reduce its harmful effects. [-]
Is part of
Symmetry, vol. 13 (4), abril 2021Rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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