A model to forecast WTI oil prices

Abstract

This paper aims at forecasting the evolution of the oil prices in the short and medium term. In order to accomplish that, we rely on historical data as well as possible variables that may have influence on the price. With all the important variables defined, we are going to focus on choosing the econometric model that will help us in forecasting. After that, we are going to see how the current market situation is mainly due to the United States and the OPEC production increase. Once we have estimated the model, we will draw different conclusions, first seeing the impact of the different variables and second linking the price estimated with the one-year future contract.