A calibration procedure for analyzing stock price dynamics in an agent-based framework
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Altres documents de l'autoria: Recchioni, Maria Cristina; Tedeschi, Gabriele; Gallegati, Mauro
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A calibration procedure for analyzing stock price dynamics in an agent-based frameworkData de publicació
2015-11Editor
ElsevierCita bibliogràfica
Recchioni, M. C., Tedeschi, G., & Gallegati, M. (2015). A calibration procedure for analyzing stock price dynamics in an agent-based framework. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 60, 1-25.Tipus de document
info:eu-repo/semantics/articleVersió de l'editorial
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188915001517Versió
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionParaules clau / Matèries
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In this paper we introduce a calibration procedure for validating of agent based models. Starting from the well-known financial model of (Brock and Hommes, 1998), we show how an appropriate calibration enables the ... [+]
In this paper we introduce a calibration procedure for validating of agent based models. Starting from the well-known financial model of (Brock and Hommes, 1998), we show how an appropriate calibration enables the model to describe price time series. We formulate the calibration problem as a nonlinear constrained optimization that can be solved numerically via a gradient-based method. The calibration results show that the simplest version of the Brock and Hommes model, with two trader types, fundamentalists and trend-followers, replicates nicely the price series of four different markets indices: the S&P 500, the Euro Stoxx 50, the Nikkei 225 and the CSI 300. We show how the parameter values of the calibrated model are important in interpreting the trader behavior in the different markets investigated. These parameters are then used for price forecasting. To further improve the forecasting, we modify our calibration approach by increasing the trader information set. Finally, we show how this new approach improves the model׳s ability to predict market prices. [-]
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Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Volume 60, November 2015Drets d'accés
Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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