A dynamical mathematical model for crime evolution based on a compartmental system with interactions
Metadatos
Mostrar el registro completo del ítemcomunitat-uji-handle:10234/9
comunitat-uji-handle2:10234/7037
comunitat-uji-handle3:10234/8635
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INVESTIGACIONMetadatos
Título
A dynamical mathematical model for crime evolution based on a compartmental system with interactionsFecha de publicación
2024-01-11Editor
Taylor & FrancisISSN
0020-7160Cita bibliográfica
Julia Calatayud, Marc Jornet & Jorge Mateu (2024) A dynamical mathematical model for crime evolution based on a compartmental system with interactions, International Journal of Computer Mathematics, DOI: 10.1080/00207160.2024.2302840Tipo de documento
info:eu-repo/semantics/articleVersión de la editorial
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00207160.2024.2302840Versión
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionPalabras clave / Materias
Resumen
We use data on imprisonment in Spain to fit a system of three ordinary differential equations that describes the temporal evolution of three different groups in the country: offenders that are not in prison, offenders ... [+]
We use data on imprisonment in Spain to fit a system of three ordinary differential equations that describes the temporal evolution of three different groups in the country: offenders that are not in prison, offenders that are in prison, and the rest of people. These remaining people are considered as susceptible, who may become offenders by their relationships. That is, crime is regarded to behave as a social epidemic. We first investigate the dynamics of the model to find out when criminality becomes extinct or endemic in the long run, depending on the basic reproduction number. Then, we estimate the parameters of the model and conduct a sensitivity analysis. Finally, a random error is incorporated, and nonlinear regression is carried out to gather the unexplained variability of the data. Our results report a satisfactory model fitting to the crime data, closely delineating their dynamics. [-]
Publicado en
International Journal of Computer Mathematics (2024)Derechos de acceso
© 2024 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
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- MAT_Articles [761]