Browsing Instituto de Economía Internacional (IEI) by Author "67c7eb21-72ac-4099-84fd-67bbd9d56a20"
Now showing items 1-20 of 23
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A Markov switching SVAR analysis on the relationship between exchange rate changes and stock returns in China
Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Tang, Bo Emerald (2020-04-22)Purpose This study investigates the spillover effects between exchange rate changes and stock returns in China. The authors find that no significant interconnections exist between stock returns and exchange rates ... -
Banking sector concentration, competition and financial stability: the case of the Baltic countries
Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Lucotte, Yannick; Reigl, Nicolas Taylor & Francis (2019)This paper empirically assesses the potential nonlinear relationship between competition and bank risk for a sample of commercial banks in the Baltic countries over the period 2000–2014. Competition is measured by two ... -
Changes in sovereign debt dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe
Cuestas, Juan Carlos Wiley (2019-05)The aim of this paper is to shed some light on the degree of sustainability of fiscal debt for a group of Central and Eastern European countries. We apply a battery of time series econometrics methods to show how the ... -
Clusters in foreign-born vs. native self-employment in Europe: do we look alike?
Cuadros, Ana; Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Mourelle, Estefanía Taylor and Francis (2022)In this paper, we analyse the existence of clusters in self-employment rates, segregating by place of birth, i.e. native vs foreign-born, in a group of 17 European countries. The analysis suggests that natives behave ... -
Co-movement between residential and commercial housing prices: evidence from a new database
Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Monfort Bellido, Mercedes Taylor & Francis (2020)The aim of this paper is to shed some light on the issue of the co-movement between residential real estate and commercial real estate using a newly developed database by the Bank if International Settlements. Our results ... -
Current account sustainability in Central and Eastern Europe: structural change and crisis
Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Monfort Bellido, Mercedes Springer (2020-02-13)In this paper we analyse the evolution of the current account as a percentage of GDP for a group of Central and Eastern European Countries. Instead of analysing only the variable for unit roots, we go a step further and ... -
Fiscal consumption and private consumption in Europe: what have we learned?
Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Monfort Bellido, Mercedes Taylor and Francis (2022)In this paper we contribute to the long literature on how fiscal policy affects the real economy. In particular, we focus on how government consumption affects private consumption for a pool of European economies. We ... -
Has the current account broken up with its fundamentals in Central and Eastern Europe?
COLEMAN, SIMEON; Cuestas, Juan Carlos John Wiley and Sons (2021-01-26)Substantial capital outflows across Europe following the 2007/8 Global Financial Crisis and 201 European Sovereign Debt crisis raise concerns regarding potential capital outflows from the economies of Central and Eastern ... -
Has the relationship between the real exchange rate and its fundamentals changed over time?
Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Monfort Bellido, Mercedes; Shimbov, Bojan Taylor and Francis (2022-07-11)In this paper we contribute to the literature on determining the real exchange rate by using models that incorporate structural breaks and nonlinearities. We estimate cointegrated dynamic ordinary least squares regressions ... -
Inflation targeting or exchange rate targeting: Which framework supports the goal of price stability in emerging market economies?
Abu Asab, Nora; Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Montagnoli, Alberto Public Library of Science (2018)The paper investigates and compares the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty under inflation targeting and, alternatively, a conventional fixed exchange rate system, for a group of emerging countries. ... -
Measuring the Cost of Covid-19 in Terms of the Rise in the Unemployment Rate: The Case of Spain
Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Ordóñez, Javier; Monfort Bellido, Mercedes Universitaet Kiel. Institut fuer Weltwirtschaft (2021)In this article, we aim to estimate what the cost of Covid-19 has been in terms of unemployment for Spain. We use a simple autoregressive model to simulate what the unemployment rate would have been without the pandemic ... -
Oil prices and unemployment in the UK before and after the crisis: A Bayesian VAR approach. A note.
Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Ordóñez, Javier Elsevier (2018)The aim of this paper is to analyse the role of oil price movements in the evolution of unemployment in the UK, accounting for asymmetric effects. Distinguishing between positive and negative innovations in oil prices ... -
Oil prices, unemployment and the financial crisis in oil-importing countries: The case of Spain
Ordóñez, Javier; Monfort Bellido, Mercedes; Cuestas, Juan Carlos (2019-08-15)The aim of this paper is to analyse the effect of oil price shocks on unemployment in an oil-importing country such as Spain to determine whether they affect unemployment differently in times of financial distress. In order ... -
Panel cointegration, quantile regressions, asymmetric adjustments and crises: The case of EU current accounts
COLEMAN, SIMEON; Cuestas, Juan Carlos Elsevier (2021-10-07)This paper investigates the relationships between the current account and several fundamentals, including the real exchange rate, government consumption, investment, openness, terms of trade and real income in the EU28 ... -
Real exchange rate misalignments in CEECs: Have they hindered growth?
Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Mourelle, Estefanía; Regis, Paulo José Springer (2019-07-16)We study the impact of exchange rate misalignment on economic activity in nine Central and Eastern European economies. Exchange rate misalignments are computed from country-specific long-run exchange rate relationships ... -
Self-employment convergence in Europe: The role of migration
Cuadros, Ana; Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Martín-Montaner, Joan PLOS (2021-04-22)This paper attempts to identify patterns of convergence in the rates of self-employment (SE) for both foreign-born and natives in a sample of 17 European countries during the period 1999–2018. A distinction is made between ... -
Stochastic convergence in real personal disposable income in the EU: A note
Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Monfort Bellido, Mercedes; Ordóñez, Javier John Wiley and Sons (2020-08-10)Economic convergence has long been a declared objective of the EU and has been considered the fundamental mechanism for achieving socioeconomic cohesion. Even so, the empirical literature finds a lack of real convergence ... -
The education pillar of the Europe 2020 strategy: a convergence analysis
Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Monfort Bellido, Mercedes; Ordóñez, Javier Springer (2021-03-26)In March 2010, the European Commission launched the Europe 2020 strategy ‘for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth’ in the EU. Education is a major pillar of the Europe 2020 strategy due to its long-run impact on economic ... -
The evolution and heterogeneity of credit procyclicality in Central and Eastern Europe
Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Lucotte, Yannick; Reigl, Nicolas John Wiley and Sons (2020-09-06)This article presents empirical estimates of bank credit procyclicality for a sample of 11 Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) for the period 2000Q1–2016Q4. In the first step, we estimate a traditional‐type panel ... -
The interaction between housing prices and housing credit: evidence from a country with rapid credit accumulation
Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Kukk, Merike Emerald (2020-05-15)Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the mutual dependence between housing prices and housing credit inEstonia,acountrythatexperiencedrapiddebtaccumulationduringthe2000sandbigswingsinhouseprices during that period. ...