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dc.contributor.authorCalatayud, Julia
dc.contributor.authorJornet, Marc
dc.contributor.authorMateu, Jorge
dc.date.accessioned2023-02-14T11:13:40Z
dc.date.available2023-02-14T11:13:40Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.identifier.citationCalatayud, J., Jornet, M. & Mateu, J. Spatio-temporal stochastic differential equations for crime incidence modeling. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-022-02369-xca_CA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10234/201654
dc.description.abstractWe propose a methodology for the quantitative fitting and forecasting of real spatio-temporal crime data, based on stochastic differential equations. The analysis is focused on the city of Valencia, Spain, for which 90247 robberies and thefts with their latitude-longitude positions are available for a span of eleven years (2010–2020) from records of the 112-emergency phone. The incidents are placed in the 26 zip codes of the city (46001–46026), and monthly time series of crime are built for each of the zip codes. Their annual-trend components are modeled by Itoˆ diffusion, with jointly correlated noises to account for district-level relations. In practice, this study may help simulate spatio-temporal situations and identify risky areas and periods from present and past data.ca_CA
dc.description.sponsorShipFunding for open access charge: CRUE-Universitat Jaume I
dc.format.extent16 p.ca_CA
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfca_CA
dc.language.isoengca_CA
dc.publisherSpringerca_CA
dc.relation.isPartOfStochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2023).ca_CA
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ca_CA
dc.subjectSpace-time crime dataca_CA
dc.subjectDifferential equationsca_CA
dc.subjectTrend time seriesca_CA
dc.subjectGeometric Brownian motion stochastic processca_CA
dc.subjectDistrict-level correlationsca_CA
dc.titleSpatio-temporal stochastic differential equations for crime incidence modelingca_CA
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleca_CA
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-022-02369-x
dc.rights.accessRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessca_CA
dc.type.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionca_CA
project.funder.nameMinisterio de Ciencia e Innovaciónca_CA
project.funder.nameGeneralitat Valencianaca_CA
oaire.awardNumberPID2019-107392RB-I00ca_CA
oaire.awardNumberAICO/2019/198ca_CA
dc.subject.ods16. Paz, justicia e instituciones sólidas


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