Capturing spatial dependence of COVID-19 case counts with cellphone mobility data
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spasta.2021.100540 |
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Título
Capturing spatial dependence of COVID-19 case counts with cellphone mobility dataFecha de publicación
2022Editor
ElsevierISSN
2211-6753Cita bibliográfica
SLATER, Justin J., et al. Capturing spatial dependence of COVID-19 case counts with cellphone mobility data. Spatial Statistics, 2022, vol. 49, p. 100540Tipo de documento
info:eu-repo/semantics/articleVersión de la editorial
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211675321000506Versión
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPalabras clave / Materias
Resumen
Spatial dependence is usually introduced into spatial models using some measure of physical proximity. When analysing COVID-19 case counts, this makes sense as regions that are close together are more likely to have ... [+]
Spatial dependence is usually introduced into spatial models using some measure of physical proximity. When analysing COVID-19 case counts, this makes sense as regions that are close together are more likely to have more people moving between them, spreading the disease. However, using the actual number of trips between each region may explain COVID-19 case counts better than physical proximity. In this paper, we investigate the efficacy of using telecommunications-derived mobility data to induce spatial dependence in spatial models applied to two Spanish communities’ COVID-19 case counts. We do this by extending Besag York Mollié (BYM) models to include both a physical adjacency effect, alongside a mobility effect. The mobility effect is given a Gaussian Markov random field prior, with the number of trips between regions as edge weights. We leverage modern parametrizations of BYM models to conclude that the number of people moving between regions better explains variation in COVID-19 case counts than physical proximity data. We suggest that this data should be used in conjunction with physical proximity data when developing spatial models for COVID-19 case counts. [-]
Publicado en
Spatial Statistics, 2022, vol. 49, p. 100540Entidad financiadora
Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación | Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
Código del proyecto o subvención
RGPIN- 2017-06856 | PID2019-107392RB-I00
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© 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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