Dealing with variability in ecological modelling: An analysis of a random non-autonomous logistic population model

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology to deal with the randomness associated toecological modelling. Data variability makes it necessary to analyse the impactof random perturbations on the fitted model parameters. We conduct suchanalysis for the logistic growth model with a certain sigmoid functional formof the carrying capacity, which was proposed in the literature for the study ofparasite growth during infection. We show how the probability distributions ofthe parameters are set via the maximum entropy principle. Then the randomvariable transformation method allows for computing the density function ofthe population.