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A Bayesian machine learning approach for spatio-temporal prediction of COVID-19 cases
dc.contributor.author | Niraula, Poshan | |
dc.contributor.author | Mateu, Jorge | |
dc.contributor.author | Chaudhuri, Somnath | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-04-27T10:37:53Z | |
dc.date.available | 2022-04-27T10:37:53Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2022 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Niraula, P., Mateu, J. & Chaudhuri, S. A Bayesian machine learning approach for spatio-temporal prediction of COVID-19 cases. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-021-02168-w | ca_CA |
dc.identifier.issn | 1436-3240 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1436-3259 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10234/197383 | |
dc.description.abstract | Modeling the spread of infectious diseases in space and time needs to take care of complex dependencies and uncertainties. Machine learning methods, and neural networks, in particular, are useful in modeling this sort of complex problems, although they generally lack of probabilistic interpretations. We propose a neural network method embedded in a Bayesian framework for modeling and predicting the number of cases of infectious diseases in areal units. A key feature is that our combined model considers the impact of human movement on the spread of the infectious disease, as an additional random factor to the also considered spatial neighborhood and temporal correlation components. Our model is evaluated over a COVID-19 dataset for 245 health zones of Castilla-Leon (Spain). The results show that a Bayesian model informed by a neural network method is generally able to predict the number of cases of COVID-19 in both space and time, with the human mobility factor having a strong influence on the model, together with the number of infections and deaths in nearby areas. | ca_CA |
dc.format.extent | 19 p. | ca_CA |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | ca_CA |
dc.language.iso | eng | ca_CA |
dc.publisher | Springer | ca_CA |
dc.relation | Análisis estadístico de eventos en espacio-tiempo sobre redes y trayectorias. características de segundo orden, modelos paramétricos, inferencia y análisis de marcas funcional | ca_CA |
dc.relation.isPartOf | Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2022) | ca_CA |
dc.rights | © Springer Nature Switzerland AG. Part of Springer Nature. | ca_CA |
dc.rights.uri | http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/CNE/1.0/ | ca_CA |
dc.subject | Bayesian inference | ca_CA |
dc.subject | COVID-19 | ca_CA |
dc.subject | neural network | ca_CA |
dc.subject | poisson regression | ca_CA |
dc.subject | public mobility | ca_CA |
dc.title | A Bayesian machine learning approach for spatio-temporal prediction of COVID-19 cases | ca_CA |
dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/article | ca_CA |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-021-02168-w | |
dc.rights.accessRights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | ca_CA |
dc.relation.publisherVersion | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00477-021-02168-w | ca_CA |
dc.description.sponsorship | J. Mateu has been partially funded by grants PID2019-107392RB-I00 from Ministry of Science and Innovation and UJI-B2018-04 from University Jaume I. P. Niraula has been funded through the Erasmus Mundus programme by the European Commission under the Framework Partnership Agreement, FPA-2016-2054. | |
dc.type.version | info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion | ca_CA |
project.funder.name | Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades | ca_CA |
project.funder.name | Universitat Jaume I | ca_CA |
project.funder.name | Comissió Europea | ca_CA |
oaire.awardNumber | MICIU/ICTI2017-2020/PID2019-107392RB-I00 | ca_CA |
oaire.awardNumber | UJI-B2018-04 | ca_CA |
oaire.awardNumber | FPA-2016-2054 | ca_CA |
oaire.awardURI | http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 | ca_CA |
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