The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity
Ver/ Abrir
Metadatos
Mostrar el registro completo del ítemcomunitat-uji-handle:10234/158176
comunitat-uji-handle2:10234/71324
comunitat-uji-handle3:10234/111700
comunitat-uji-handle4:
TFG-TFMMetadatos
Título
The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic ActivityAutoría
Tutor/Supervisor; Universidad.Departamento
Alfarano, Simone; Jaramillo Gutiérrez, Ainhoa; Universitat Jaume I. Departament d'EconomiaFecha de publicación
2021-06-15Editor
Universitat Jaume IResumen
The inversion of the yield curve is interpreted by financial markets as the prelude to a
forthcoming economic recession. The predictive ability of this economic instrument to
predict future growth rates of real ... [+]
The inversion of the yield curve is interpreted by financial markets as the prelude to a
forthcoming economic recession. The predictive ability of this economic instrument to
predict future growth rates of real economic activity, as well as economic recessions is
examined. In addition, a selection of three countries belonging to the European Union,
namely Germany, France and Spain, where we use a linear regression model and a
probit model to test the predictive ability of this possible leading economic indicator is
studied.
Specific results for each country are obtained, concluding favourably in the analysis of
Germany, and with less relevant results for France and Spain. However, given the simple
application and interpretation of this tool, we consider it a relevant instrument to predict
the economic future. [-]
Palabras clave / Materias
Descripción
Treball Final de Grau en Economia. Codi: EC1049. Curs acadèmic: 2020/2021
Tipo de documento
info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesisDerechos de acceso
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Aparece en las colecciones
- Grau en Economia [289]