Current account sustainability in Central and Eastern Europe: structural change and crisis

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the evolution of the current account as a percentage of GDP for a group of Central and Eastern European Countries. Instead of analysing only the variable for unit roots, we go a step further and test for different speeds of mean reversion dependent on break dates endogenously determined. We apply the Bai and Perron method to find that most countries have managed to balance their current account, but some of them should keep an eye on the low speed of mean reversion and the deviation of the time trend from balance.