Prediction of recidivism with the youth level of service/case management inventory (YLS/CMI) in a Spanish ethnic minority: the Roma population

Abstract

Risk assessment in youth offenders becomes critical to reduce the possibility of reoffending. The applicability of risk assessment tools for ethnically diverse populations has not been extensively examined, but the limited literature suggests that there may be differences in the predictive validity and risk scores across ethnic groups. To address this subject, a study on the predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) in a Spanish ethnic minority was performed. Participants were 231 minor offenders between the ages of 14 and 17 and with a criminal record in the juvenile court. Of the total number of juvenile offenders, 91 were Roma Spaniards and 140 non-Roma Spaniards. To assess criminal recidivism, the charges filed after the date of the first assessment carried out by the Youth Offending Team were coded. The follow-up period for this recidivism started from 2012 to 2017. Results showed that Spanish Roma group presented higher scores on risk factors and criminal recidivism while the Spanish non-Roma group showed a higher score on protective factors. With respect to predictive validity, the Inventory presents a more accurate risk assessment for the non-Roma group. These results support the idea that ethnic variable is a factor that should be taken into account when using these kind of risk assessments.