Prediction markets and the Spanish election project

Abstract

The aim of this paper can be divided into two principle categories. Firstly, prediction markets will be explained in terms of their potential use in society and their market mechanisms. A brief introduction based on prediction markets including all their elements is given. Once we have introduced them, we will analyse the way in which prediction markets have evolved from what they once were and look at their uses now, in modern day society. This will be combined with a literature review. As part of our work, we have also formulated our own market and we demonstrate how it can be tested using the Policy Oracle platform. Our project will consist on making predictions about the political future of Spain, forecasting the possible 3rd general elections of 2016. Once we have obtained the results from our project, the next step will be to make an analysis of our results and deduce any conclusions.