Spatial pattern modelling of wildfires in Catalonia, Spain 2004–2008

Abstract

The paper has three objectives: firstly, to evaluate how the extent of clustering in wildfires differs across the years they occurred; secondly, to analyse the influence of covariates on trends in the intensity of wildfire locations; and thirdly, to build maps of wildfire risks, by year and cause of ignition, in order to provide a tool for preventing and managing vulnerability levels. For these objectives we analysed the spatio-temporal patterns produced by wildfire incidences in Catalonia, located in the north-east of the Iberian Peninsula. The methodology used has allowed us to quantify and assess possible spatial relationships between the distribution of risk of ignition and causes. These results may be useful in fire management decision-making and planning. The methods shown in this paper may contribute to the prevention and management of wildfires, which are not random in space or time, as we have shown here.