Predictions of European refrigerants place on the market following F-gas regulation restrictions

Abstract

The European Union (EU) Regulation on fluorinated greenhouse gases (F-gases) has encouraged to reduce gradually the number of hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) that can be placed on the market (POM) to 21% of the baseline level in 2030. However, to this day, the EU refrigeration, air conditioning and heat pump (RACHP) market is still dominated by these substances. This study describes a methodology to estimate the refrigerant demand by refrigeration, air conditioning, and heat pumps available to the EU customers until 2030. The work is based on the most relevant current statistical data, refrigerant distribution (R134a, R404A, R407C and R410A), and future technology acceptance and trends. The study presents a refrigerant demand grow scenario and provides a basis for a closer market follow-up to facilitate refrigeration industry stakeholders' decision-making. The results indicate that by 2021 will be challenging to accomplish the fluorinated gas quota considering the current HFC phase-down process. However, by 2030, the transition is possible in the EU, assuming the additional measures to mitigate the leakage from already installed equipment will be taken. By that time, natural refrigerants, including CO2, ammonia, and hydrocarbons, can dominate the market. However, the share of HFC or HFC/HFO mixtures in operation is still significant (R32 or mixtures with similar behaviour, and R404A low flammability alternatives). Consequently, industrial and commercial refrigeration (large scale applications) will concentrate approximately half of the GWP weighted CO2e, negligible direct emissions for domestic refrigeration or mobile air conditioning, dominated by natural refrigerants pure HFO refrigerants, respectively.