Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold waves
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Otros documentos de la autoría: Smid, M.; Russo, S.; Costa, Ana Cristina; Granell, Carlos; Pebesma, Edzer
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Título
Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold wavesFecha de publicación
2019Editor
ElsevierISSN
2212-0955Cita bibliográfica
SMID, Marek, et al. Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold waves. Urban Climate, 2019, vol. 27, p. 388-402Tipo de documento
info:eu-repo/semantics/articleVersión de la editorial
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212095518302700Versión
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPalabras clave / Materias
Resumen
In warming Europe, we are witnessing a growth in urban population with aging trend, which willmake the society more exposed and vulnerable to extreme weather events. In the period1950–2015 the occurrence of extreme ... [+]
In warming Europe, we are witnessing a growth in urban population with aging trend, which willmake the society more exposed and vulnerable to extreme weather events. In the period1950–2015 the occurrence of extreme heat waves increased across European capitals. As anexample, in 2010 Moscow was hit by the strongest heat wave of the present era, killing more thanten thousand people. The cold extremes will have decreasing tendency as global warming pro-gresses, however due to higher variability of future climates, the cold wave hazard may remainlocally important threat. Moreover, the heat and cold-related mortality will be enhanced withforeseen demographic evolution in European cities.Here we focus on larger metropolitan areas of European capitals (EU28 plus Moscow, Oslo andZurich). By using an ensemble of eight EURO-CORDEX models under the RCP8.5 scenario, wedetected heat waves and cold waves events by deployment of Heat Wave Magnitude Index dailyand its cold wave counterpart. We introduce a ranking procedure based on ensemble predictionsusing the median of metropolitan grid cells for each capital, and population density as a proxy toquantify the future exposure.All the investigated European metropolitan areas will be more vulnerable to extreme heat inthe coming decades. Based on the impact ranking, results reveal that cold waves will representsome threat in mid of the century but they will not be the major threat in any of Europeancapitals, and that they are projected to completely vanish by the end of this century. On thecontrary, in near, but even more so in distant future, extreme heat events in European capitalswill be not exclusive to traditionally exposed areas such as the Mediterranean and the IberianPeninsula. The ranking of European capitals based on their exposure to extreme heat is ofparamount importance to decision makers in order to mitigate the heat related mortality,especially with the foreseen increase of global mean temperature. Furthermore, this simplecomparative indicator helps communicating the global, complex and impersonal issue of climatechange locally thus contributing to raise awareness and call for action. [-]
Publicado en
Urban Climate, 2019, vol. 27, p. 388-402Proyecto de investigación
The authors gratefully acknowledge funding from the European Commission under the H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions,International Training Networks (ITN), European Joint Doctorates (EJD), through the Geoinformatics: Enabling Open Cities (GEO-C)project [642332—GEO-C—H2020-MSCA-ITN-2014Derechos de acceso
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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