Fiscal Multipliers and Forecast Errors
Ver/ Abrir
Metadatos
Mostrar el registro completo del ítemcomunitat-uji-handle:10234/158176
comunitat-uji-handle2:10234/71345
comunitat-uji-handle3:10234/173490
comunitat-uji-handle4:
TFG-TFMMetadatos
Título
Fiscal Multipliers and Forecast ErrorsAutoría
Tutor/Supervisor; Universidad.Departamento
Alfarano, Simone; Universitat Jaume I. Departament d'EconomiaFecha de publicación
2018-10-24Editor
Universitat Jaume IResumen
The study of the fiscal multipliers is growing interest among economists and generating quite a debate on their determinants, size and forecast methodologies. During the financial crisis there has been some forecasting ... [+]
The study of the fiscal multipliers is growing interest among economists and generating quite a debate on their determinants, size and forecast methodologies. During the financial crisis there has been some forecasting problems, because it was a unique scenario without any antecedent to support their estimations. In this thesis, we will focus on the Blanchard and Leigh’s research ‘Growth forecast errors and Fiscal multipliers’ published in 2013, in which they showed an underestimation of the fiscal multipliers in the 2010-2011 period. We are going to extend their baseline estimation from 2011-2012 until 2016-2017. The aim is to check if it was an isolate case and if the researchers have learnt to estimate accurately fiscal multipliers for the following periods, or if there is a deeper bias in the methodology of fiscal multipliers forecast which is to be found out. The result shows that fiscal multipliers have been accurately forecasted, that it just was an isolate ‘mistake’. Additionally, we will reinforce our research developing panel data analysis for both data selection, and will carry out a robustness check for the economy’s choice and possible influence for outliers for our case. The panel data analysis shows that the forecast has been more accurate after Blanchard and Leigh’s exposition of underestimation of fiscal multipliers. In the other part of this robustness check, we will make a difference among three groups of economies: European countries, advanced economies and emerging markets estates. Overall, the baseline estimations have been accurate and robust for the outliers’ influence. The results expose that the estimation of the fiscal multipliers is improving after the difficulties of forecasting accurately until 2017 for European countries. However, the fiscal multipliers framework is still being a black box for economic study. [-]
Palabras clave / Materias
Descripción
Treball Final de Màster Universitari en Economia / Master in Economics. Codi: SRN015. Curs acadèmic 2017-2018
Tipo de documento
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisDerechos de acceso
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Aparece en las colecciones
El ítem tiene asociados los siguientes ficheros de licencia: