Analysis and simulation of social unrest in Europe. Towards understanding social unrest in Europe
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Título
Analysis and simulation of social unrest in Europe. Towards understanding social unrest in EuropeAutoría
Tutor/Supervisor
Mateu, Jorge; Costa, Ana Cristina; Pebesma, EdzerTutor/Supervisor; Universidad.Departamento
Universitat Jaume I. Departament de MatemàtiquesFecha de publicación
2014-02Editor
Universitat Jaume IResumen
Protest of Europe from 2000 to 2010 where analyzed to foster understanding of the
distribution and behaviour of those during the time mentioned.
The main object of this study was to discover the relation with variables ... [+]
Protest of Europe from 2000 to 2010 where analyzed to foster understanding of the
distribution and behaviour of those during the time mentioned.
The main object of this study was to discover the relation with variables available in
Eurostat and discover the pattern of those protests around Europe. Ordinary Least
Squared Method and Spatial point pattern analysis methods were implemented in the
R software environment for this purpose. Overall, the variables selected do not
define the protests behaviour but some of them are related and increase with the
protests. Protest tend to increase occur mostly when other protest have happened.
Protest tend to create hotspots within Europe, their location are mostly in urban areas
and close to the borders with other European countries. Resulting models discovered
that protest/event distribution does not imitate to a Poisson process, and that their
behaviour can be better described by interaction between protests.
The final model chosen by best distance was analyzed for Europe and later for
Germany, France, United Kingdom and Spain due to an unequal distribution of
protests in Europe; a further temporal analysis was computed only for Spain. The set
of models computed, showed that protest location are scattered within the European
megalopolis, and reveals characteristics the attraction to some capitals so that
clustered or hot spots pattern are observed.
This analysis is one of the first analyses prepared by the recently launched, Global
Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT), a big free online data base of
over 250m events and 300 categories from riots and protests to diplomatic exchanges
and peace appeals codified from world news sources. From this analysis we
recommend that further models could be applied to compute dissemination and
contagions over time within borders. [-]
Palabras clave / Materias
Màster Universitari Erasmus Mundus en Tecnologia Geoespacial | Erasmus Mundus University Master's Degree in Geospatial Technologies | Máster Universitario Erasmus Mundus en Tecnología Geoespacial | protest | GDELT (Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone) | Spatial Autoregressive model | Spatial Point Pattern Analysis | Spatial distribution pattern | spatstat
Descripción
Treball Final del Màster Universitari Erasmus Mundus en Tecnologia Geoespacial (Pla de 2013). Codi: SIW013. Curs acadèmic 2013-2014
Tipo de documento
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisDerechos de acceso
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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