Non-Linear Tradeoff between Risk and Return: A Regime-Switching Multi-Factor Framework

Abstract

This study develops a multi-factor framework where not only the market risk is considered but also potential changes in the investment opportunity set. Although previous studies find no clear evidence about a positive and significant relation between return and risk, favourable evidence can be obtained if a non-linear relation is established. The positive and significant tradeoff between return and risk is essentially observed during low volatility periods suggesting a procyclical risk aversion of investors. Different patterns for the risk premium dynamics in low and high volatility periods are obtained, both in risk prices and risk (conditional second moments) patterns.