Foreign trade and economic growth in Spain (1900–2012): the role of energy imports

Abstract

We take a long-term perspective (1900–2012) to examine the causal relationship between foreign trade and economic growth for Spain. Results from both Johansen’s (J Econ Dyn Control 12:231–254, 1988) and Toda and Yamamoto’s (J Econom 66:225–250, 1995) methodologies are quite consistent. For the first six decades of the 20th century, a sub-period characterised by an inward oriented trade policy, we find that growth is fairly independent of foreign trade. This outcome contrasts with findings for the sub-period after the Stabilisation and Liberalisation Plan (1959), where a causal network among variables is supported. We find that both exports and energy imports have been a direct cause of the growth experienced since the sixties. Empirical results from Toda and Yamamoto suggest that the rest of the imports may have also played an important role but after the incorporation of Spain into the European Community (1986).